Author: Fabiane Ziolla Menezes
Jul 03, 2024 14:36 2 min read The May manufacturing data indicates a slowdown in Brazil’s economic activity in Q2. The sector declined by 0.9 percent month-on-month and 1 percent compared to May 2023, reversing earlier gains. Output levels remain 1.4 percent below pre-pandemic levels and nearly 18 percent below the 2011 peak. The floods in Rio Grande do Sul had a negative impact on the results, affecting motor vehicles and food production nationwide. The production disruptions in the state affected industries across the country, with significant losses reported. A Central Bank dilemma ahead Economists predict that the Central Bank…
Jul 01, 2024 11:28 2 min read (Updated: Jul 01, 2024 11:38) Brazil’s inflation expectations have been on the rise, with short-term expectations increasing while long-term projections remain above the 3 percent target. Goldman Sachs’s economist, Alberto Ramos, analyzed the latest Focus Report released by the Central Bank, which revealed inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 to be 4 percent and 3.87 percent, respectively. The market perceives that fiscal targets may not be met, leading to an acceptance of higher inflation levels. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee has revised inflation projections above the target rate, reflecting concerns about unanchored…
Jul 01, 2024 9:51 11 min read (Updated: Jul 01, 2024 9:53) Last week, the Fernando Henrique Cardoso Foundation hosted a significant event commemorating the 30th anniversary of the Real Plan – the initiative that ended hyperinflation in Brazil. Although Mr. Cardoso, now 93, couldn’t attend due to health reasons, the gathering of key figures highlighted the plan’s political significance as much as its economic impact. The event serves as a reminder that economic stability is intertwined with political decisions. Not a one-person idea The Real Plan emerged as a response to hyperinflation that plagued Brazil in the early 1990s.…
Jun 29, 2024 9:35 5 min read Brazil’s creative industry reaches new milestone in job creation The recent report from Observatório Itaú Cultural revealed that the creative economy sector in Brazil employed over 7.7 million workers by the end of 2023, the highest number since the series began in 2 7890-2868012. Why it matters. This record employment level in the sector is likely due to the dynamic labor market and the resumption of cultural and innovation financing through government channels. Context. Between Q4 2022 and Q4 2023, the creative economy added more than 287,000 jobs, a 4 percent increase —…
Jun 25, 2024 14:45 5 min read sdfsdf (Updated: Jun 25, 2024 14:46) The Central Bank released the minutes of its Monetary Policy Council’s recent meeting, maintaining Brazil’s benchmark interest rate at 10.5 percent. However, there were notable differences in this statement compared to previous ones. The committee acknowledged the challenging global environment, particularly uncertainties around the U.S. easing cycle. Despite this, they noted that economic activity and job creation are stronger than anticipated, suggesting that further rate cuts may not be imminent. The discussion centered on the concept of the output gap, which is now believed to be closer…
Jun 21, 2024 12:17 6 min read The latest Central Bank Banking Report reveals a significant transformation in Brazil’s payments market. The market has expanded from two acquiring competitors in 2010 to 28 players in 2023. This shift has downgraded the market’s concentration level from high to moderate for the first time. This milestone stems from over a decade of new regulations, sparking a fintech revolution in Brazil and positioning the country as a global leader in financial regulation. Fierce competition among acquirers, card networks, issuers, and POS terminal providers has led to decreased margins and prompted strategic changes. The…
Jun 20, 2024 15:17 2 min read Brazil’s National Treasury has revealed its plans for a second issuance of sustainable bonds on the global market, with a goal of raising up to USD 10 billion. This announcement comes after the success of the country’s first sustainable bond issuance last year, which raised USD 2 billion. The demand for the previous bonds exceeded expectations, reaching nearly USD 6 billion, leading to the decision for a second issuance. The proceeds from the new bonds will be dedicated to sustainability and social development projects, including renewable energy, clean transportation, and poverty alleviation. The…
Jun 19, 2024 18:54 7 min read (Updated: Jun 19, 2024 19:27) The Brazilian Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 10.5 percent, with all nine members in agreement. In the previous meeting, there was a split vote, revealing a divide between members appointed by Bolsonaro and Lula. This decision adds a political layer to the process, with Lula criticizing the Central Bank for high borrowing costs. Supporters have accused Chairman Campos Neto of a hidden agenda, especially after he accepted honors from a potential political rival. Lula’s remarks have intensified the debate, questioning…
Jun 17, 2024 16:20 3 min read (Updated: Jun 17, 2024 16:21) The latest Focus Report from the Central Bank and investment firms reveals that Brazil’s monetary easing phase is likely over. Market agents do not expect any interest rate cuts in the upcoming policy meeting. Forecasts for the year-end benchmark interest rate, inflation index, and economic growth have all worsened. The Selic rate is projected to remain at 10.5 percent, with inflation expectations revised upward to 3.96 percent. The recent flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has impacted agricultural output and inflation, while reconstruction efforts are expected to provide…
Jun 17, 2024 15:07 6 min read (Updated: Jun 17, 2024 15:08) Welcome to our Tech Roundup, where we bring you the biggest stories in technology and innovation in Brazil and Latin America. This week: Using GPT-4 to manage millions and millions of lawsuits. The Solicitor General’s Office is using OpenAI’s GPT-4 to handle its massive backlog In a groundbreaking move, the Solicitor General’s Office in Brazil has adopted OpenAI’s GPT-4, integrated into Microsoft’s cloud service, to manage its overwhelming load of legal cases. Microsoft, already a supplier to the AGU, had contracts with over 280 public administration bodies by…