The Realities of Russian Advances in Ukraine: A Candid Assessment by Defense Minister Shoigu
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently provided an honest evaluation of the progress made by Russian forces in Ukraine. His assessment steered clear of overly optimistic claims, indicating a desire to manage expectations regarding Russia’s upcoming offensive in the summer of 2024.
A new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted Shoigu’s remarks during a conference call with Russian military leaders. He stated that Russian forces had captured 547 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine since the beginning of 2024.
ISW, however, revealed that data supported only about 516 square kilometers being seized by Russian forces as of April 29. Shoigu’s more measured claim represents a departure from earlier statements that exaggerated Russian gains by approximately 100 square kilometers.
By downplaying Russian activities as “active defense” in December 2023, Shoigu likely aimed to downplay the months-long operation to seize Avdiivka. Analysts at ISW believe that his latest remarks are intended to manage expectations for the anticipated 2024 offensive, where Russian forces will face better-equipped Ukrainian counterparts.