Michelle Steel concedes defeat in California House race in key win for Democrats

Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) conceded defeat in her reelection bid for California’s 45th Congressional District, notching a key win for Democrats in one of the most competitive races of the 2024 cycle and further narrowing Republicans’ already slim majority in the lower chamber.

Steel seemed to acknowledge her loss in a statement on Wednesday despite the race remaining uncalled by the Associated Press. However, the most recent vote counts show the GOP incumbent trailing Democratic challenger Derek Tran by just 613 votes three weeks after Election Day.

“I owe a debt of gratitude to my supporters, my staff, my family, my daughters and especially my husband, Shawn, for standing by me through endless campaigns,” Steel wrote. “To my volunteers, we would never have made it this far without your tireless efforts. And, to the voters, thank you. I will never stop fighting for you.”

She added: “Everything is God’s will and, like all journeys, this one is ending for a new one to begin.”

Steel became a top target for Democrats in the 2024 cycle as she was one of only 17 House Republicans running for reelection in a district that President Joe Biden won in 2020. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report deemed the seat a toss-up and rated it D+2.

Tran already declared victory in the race earlier this week despite the absence of an official call. It is one of just three House races that have yet to be called in addition to California’s 13th Congressional District, held by Rep. John Duarte (R-CA), and Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, held by Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA).

The current projections show Duarte’s challenger, Democratic candidate Adam Gray, leading the Republican incumbent and Miller-Meeks ahead of her opponent, Christina Bohannan.

If those numbers hold, Republicans will have a 220-215 majority — an even smaller majority than the one they have struggled with over the last two years.

Even so, those numbers will not hold for long. Republicans are expected to start the year with at least three vacancies in the seats held by former Rep. Matt Gaetz, who resigned earlier this month, and Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) and Mike Waltz (R-FL), who will join the Trump administration.

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Those vacancies would leave the House makeup at 217-215, giving Republicans only a one-seat majority — raising concerns among members about how much of President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda they will be able to accomplish in the first 100 days. It also puts added pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to lock up every single GOP vote for the Jan. 3, 2025, floor vote for House speaker.

It could still take days or weeks for those races to be called, and although they will not shift the balance of power in the lower chamber, they could make things more difficult for Johnson to wrangle his conference.