As attitudes around potential future peace negotiations continue to shift in Ukraine, 52% of Ukrainians now say that they would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war “as soon as possible,” according to a survey published by Gallup on Nov. 19.
The survey, released ahead of the anticipated harsh winter months amid Russian energy attacks, highlights that approximately 10% to 12% of Ukraine’s population living in Russian-occupied territories were excluded from the poll.
The poll, released on the 1,000th day of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, indicates a progressive shift in sentiments surrounding the end of the war, with only about four in ten, 38%, respondents saying that the country should “continue fighting until it wins the war.”
In 2022, following the start of the all-out war, a record 73% of respondents believed Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins, dropping to 63% in 2023, according to Gallup’s finding. The shift represents a 25 percentage point decrease year-over-year between 2023 and 2024.
The poll, which did not ask about details regarding a timeline for negotiations, falls in contrast with another survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released on Nov. 4 that showed that 63% of Ukrainians ready to endure the war as long as necessary.
Among those surveyed in the Gallup poll who would be open negotiating peace as soon as possible, 52% would be open to making territorial concessions as part of a peace deal with 38% against concessions — though the specifics of the potential territorial concessions were not outlined in the survey.
The responses to the survey likely fall in line with comments made by President-elect Donald Trump, who pledged to end Russia’s war against Ukraine “within 24 hours.” Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for a national security advisor, told Voice of America on Nov. 13 that Trump wants to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table to end the war.
The change in sentiment is also likely reflected in comments made by Ukrainian officials over the past year. Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Oleksandr Lytvynenko said in May that Ukraine “clearly understands” that Russia’s full-scale war will end with negotiations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has more recently said that the country must do everything possible to end the war through diplomatic means in 2025, adding that a war would “end faster” under a Trump administration.
Support for an immediate end to the war through negotiations is most popular among Ukraine’s front-line eastern regions, with just 27% of respondents in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv oblasts saying that Kyiv should continue to fight until it wins the war — down from 63% in 2022.
Despite Trump’s insistence on quickly settling the war, 70% of respondents most trust European Union countries to play a significant role in a potential negotiated peace, with only 49% of supportive of the United States under a Trump administration having a significant role. A further 63% of respondents were in favor of having the United Kingdom play a significant role.
The Gallup poll involved approximately 1,000 Ukrainian adults from all regions of the country and has a margin of error of 3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
Irynka Hromotska