The weather forecast for summer is starting to take shape, and there’s good news and bad for Australians wanting to flock to the beach during the warmest months of the year.
The good news is temperatures are expected to be nice and warm. The bad? Umbrellas may well be required, with plenty of precipitation predicted.
This is what we know about the summer forecast.
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How hot will it be in summer?
While the Bureau of Meteorology hasn’t yet released its official summer forecast, it has put out long-range modelling for December to February.
The latest long-range forecast, published on November 14, suggests Australia is in for a hot summer.
Much of the country, including the entire east coast, Victoria’s south coast, Tasmania, the west coast, and Darwin’s surrounds, have a greater than 70 per cent chance of recording above-median maximum temperatures.
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The likelihood of extreme temperatures appears moderate.
Most of Australia has less than a 50 per cent chance of maximums that would match the top 20 per cent of recorded temperatures for December to February.
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Perth is the main outlier, with it and much of the rest coast, as well as large sections of northern Tasmania, having a better than 50 per cent chance of being “unusually warm”.
There’s unlikely to be too much relief from the heat overnight, with almost the entire county, including Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra, having a better than 60 per cent of recording historically high minimum temperatures.
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How much rain will we get in summer?
If the forecasts are accurate, we’re in for a wet few months, particularly on the east coast.
“Rainfall is likely (60 to 80 per cent chance) to be above average for much of eastern Australia, including much of Queensland, New South Wales, central Victoria, eastern Tasmania, and scattered areas of Western Australia,” the BoM’s long-range forecast states.
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“There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for parts of Queensland’s interior and the Cape York Peninsula.”
Only small, remote areas of Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory have less than a 40 per cent chance of above-median rainfall over summer.
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