The News
People are making bets on whether US President-elect Donald Trump’s more controversial nominees will get confirmed by the Senate.
On cypto-based betting platform, Polymarket, which successfully signaled a resounding Trump victory in the presidential election when traditional polls did not, bettors are putting money on whether Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth will become the US defense secretary and if former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz will be confirmed to run the US Justice Department.
While the pool for Hegseth is small so far they favor him by 79%. Gaetz’s confirmation, meanwhile, has attracted more money, but the market rates his chances at just 29%.
Meanwhile, immediately after Trump nominated vaccine sceptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to the US’ top health job, odds on whether the incoming administration recommends removing fluoride from water spiked from less than 25% to more than 50%.
SIGNALS
Gaetz’ confirmation faces a rocky road through Senate
Sources: The Washington Post, NBC News, Politico
Former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, who has been the subject of ethics inquiries and a Justice Department sex trafficking probe, is widely seen as the most likely Trump pick to struggle with Senate confirmation. Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski said he would face a “significant challenge” to win enough votes, while her colleague from Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst said, “He’s got his work cut out for him.” Former GOP House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said, “Gaetz won’t get confirmed. Everybody knows that.” Two Politico reporters argued that it would be a mistake to underestimate the MAGA firebrand, who has had a lightning rise since being elected to the Florida House of Representatives at the age of 27. “He is often dismissed as a clown,” they wrote, but “then he keeps winning.”
Trump looks to bypass Senate confirmation altogether
Sources: The Washington Post, Good Authority, Fox News
Even the best-informed punters might be thrown off course if Trump gets his way in appointing picks while Congress is out of session. Trump has demanded that Republican leadership on the Hill allow him to install his cabinet while Congress is in recess, bypassing the need for congressional approval. If the Senate were to accept Trump’s request, it would be “an absolute abdication of their constitutional power,” one political scientist told The Washington Post. Still, George W. Bush and Barack Obama also made some recess appointments, earning pushbacks from the Senate and the Supreme Court. The incoming Senate majority leader, John Thune, said “all the options are on the table,” although he noted that some Republicans could vote against putting the Senate in recess for Trump to appoint nominees.
Prediction markets see an ‘astronomical’ rise
Sources: The Guardian, Semafor, The Economist
Betting markets were allowed to legally host election wagers just a few weeks before the US presidential contest, sparking a huge rise in political gambling. The CEO of prediction market Kalshi said it had seen “astronomical” growth in the run-up to the election, while more than $3.6 billion was gambled on who would take the White House on crypto-based platform Polymarket, which doesn’t permit US users. Successful speculators have been taking victory laps, arguing that markets provide better information than conventional US polling techniques. But speculators are not “savants,” The Economist argued, and they didn’t accurately predict the nature of Trump’s win: The betting market did come even close to forecasting that Trump would win the popular vote.
