The News
Mike Johnson can actually breathe easy. At least for a few days.
The speaker’s job looks safer than ever, thanks in large part to Donald Trump’s vote of confidence in him. But he and the president-elect are about to face a series of unity tests on big votes that risk splintering the GOP — and undercutting their position heading into Trump’s inauguration.
Johnson has plenty to feel good about after a first year as speaker that saw repeated threats to his gavel and an election where his party barely gained a seat, despite Trump’s commanding win at the top of the ticket. Hardliners who floated a challenge to Johnson during this week’s internal House Republican elections ended up abandoning the idea after Trump gave the Louisianan a clear endorsement.
Johnson’s internal victory was followed by a deal struck between often-warring House GOP factions that will require nine members to force a vote to fire the speaker, a significant change from the one-member threshold of the past two years. Conservatives who consistently lobbed ouster warnings at Johnson and his predecessor sounded ready to give the speaker, and Trump, room to run.
“I want the president … to take the field with the team that he wants on the field,” said Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., who voted to fire former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
It’s not clear, however, whether hardliners can keep up their newfound interest in common ground as the House heads toward bitter year-end battles over funding the government, passing a defense policy bill and extending federal farm programs. All three issues will require the GOP to maintain near-total unity or rely on Democratic votes that carry a cost.
And they’ll be good practice for the narrow majority that Johnson has to operate under next year, a slim margin that has shrunk further for the time being as Trump plucked three sitting Republican members to join his administration.
“Things look pretty good right now, but we have a lot of runway between now and January 3,” Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., told Semafor, referring to the date of the speakership election for the next two-year Congress. Perry, a former chair of the hardliner-heavy Freedom Caucus, pointed to the prospect of a “big spending package” before 2025.
If it’s any consolation to Johnson, conservatives sound ready to trust Trump’s read on him even if they have their own doubts. Asked if he’d back Johnson on matters where Trump agrees but the speaker fell short of his own expectations, Rep. Paul Gosar referenced another former speaker mistrusted by some MAGA-friendly Republicans.
“I held my breath and did it for Paul Ryan,” Gosar, R-Ariz., told Semafor.
Even Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., seems resigned to at least two more years of Johnson despite leading an effort to remove him earlier this year.
“Honestly, it doesn’t matter who’s in leadership,” Greene said this week. “They just have to get President Trump’s agenda passed.”
Room for Disagreement
Johnson’s successful week aside, plenty of conservatives are withholding their judgment until early next year. The speaker could find himself reelected on the floor on Jan. 3, only to run smack into dissension from within as the House prepares to organize and start taking up bills.
“Until we sort out as a conference how we’re going to come together, and make decisions to advance the agenda, then everything remains in question,” Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, said this week.
Perry sounded a similar note of caution about putting his full trust in party leaders until the full package of House rules is made official, which will happen next year.
“We want to be unified, and we want to be focused on, obviously, doing the things we think would need to be done to save our country,” he said. “But we also know that things don’t always go the way they’re supposed to around here.”
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., is another conservative whose approach to Trump and Johnson remains uncertain. He’s not a member of the Freedom Caucus but joined Greene’s charge to fire the speaker and is secure enough in his safe seat to be unthreatened by the political fallout that other Republicans experience from crossing the president-elect.
Kadia’s view
The Freedom Caucus has made its name by making life difficult for House Republican leaders, but it’s often also assumed to be a Trump-aligned bloc of the party. That’s not necessarily true across the board.
Its members often professed to be fully aligned with Trump during his first term, but they stood against him and House Republican leaders in high-stakes talks over how to repeal Obamacare, causing a major internal clash. And just look at where major players in the group landed during this election season.
Roy started out backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the primary, as did then-Freedom Caucus chair Rep. Bob Good (who later lost to a Republican rival marketing himself as more Trump-friendly). Another Freedom Caucus member, Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., backed his home-state colleague Nikki Haley over Trump.
In addition, the group ejected Greene, one of MAGA’s biggest stars.
That raises the real question: How independent House Republican hardliners will be next year from their party’s leaders when Trump is back in power? If conservatives ease up in deference to Trump, expect Johnson to have an easier 2025.
But if they don’t, both the speaker and the president-elect could find their narrow House majority very challenging.