Australians will head to the polls for the next federal election sometime in the next six months or so – although when exactly it will be held isn’t set in stone.
Speculation about a potential early election has ebbed and flowed in the second half of the Labor government’s term, and there have been a few hints about when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will call the vote.
This is what we know.
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When is the latest the federal election can be held?
There are a series of requirements in the Constitution that set out when an election has to be held.
Terms in the House of Representatives run for three years, and an election for that house must be held no later than 68 days after they expire.
This time around, those terms expire on July 25, 2025, and the last Saturday in the following 68-day period is September 27.
We’ll definitely head to the ballot box before then, though, thanks to the Senate.
Half of all senators’ terms will expire on June 30, 2025, and an election has to be held for those seats in the preceding year.
Once you factor in various technicalities and practicalities around swearing in, as well as the fact House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are almost always held simultaneously, the latest the next federal election will be held is May 17, 2025.
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What about a double dissolution election?
Albanese helped ignite speculation about a double dissolution in September when he replied “we’ll wait and see” when it was suggested such a course wouldn’t play out well for the government.
A double dissolution election occurs when both houses of parliament are dissolved and every seat is contested (as opposed to regular elections, when only half the Senate goes to the polls) after a piece of legislation has been repeatedly rejected.
The latest both houses can be dissolved this term is January 24. If that occurs, the election will follow sometime between February 22 and March 29.
It’s worth noting, though, that double dissolution elections are quite rare. While one was held as recently as 2016, only six others have been called in Australian history.
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What has the government said?
In his September comments, Albanese threatened that the rejection of the government’s Help To Buy housing plan and two other pieces of legislation could provide the trigger for a double dissolution.
”I’ll tell you a way to avoid a (double dissolution). It’s for the Coalition and the Greens to vote for legislation that they support,” he said.
“There’s nothing in the legislation on the Nature Positive Act that they say they’re opposed to, so why would you vote against it?”
For the most part, though, he has indicated an early election is unlikely, stating his support for longer parliamentary terms.
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Health Minister Mark Butler was also about election timings after the government announced its policy to reduce student debt.
Albanese said the plan would come into effect on June 1, 2025, and that it would be the first legislation brought by Labor if it wins the next election – a very tight turnaround unless there’s either an early election or the laws are backdated.
Butler said that shouldn’t be used as an indicator that an early election could be on the cards.
“You can all read tea leaves about election timing,” he said.
“I’m sure that will happen for the coming joyous weeks and months as we lead into the next election. I’m not going to add to it.
“I think the prime minister’s statement this morning simply reflects the priority we give to relieving financial pressure on young Australians.”
A proposed parliamentary sitting calendar for 2025, published in October, has the federal budget pencilled in for March 25 – well before its usual May timeslot, and another indicator that a May election is looking probable.
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