The ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to exacerbate Lebanon’s already fragile economy, according to a recent report by the UNDP. The forecasted 9.2% GDP contraction in 2024 paints a grim future for the nation, which has already seen a 28% economic decline between 2018 and 2022.
Even with a brief period of stability in 2023, Lebanon’s economic woes are expected to persist beyond 2024. The UNDP predicts further contractions in 2025 and 2026 due to infrastructure damage and slow reconstruction efforts post-conflict.
Challenges loom ahead for Lebanon’s government, with potential drops in public revenue risking essential service provision. UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner emphasises the urgency of the situation, highlighting rising poverty and social instability.
Summary: Lebanon’s Economy Amid Regional Conflict
The report points to significant short-term economic repercussions in tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade, with unemployment rates projected to reach 32.6%. The country’s vulnerability to regional tensions underscores the need for internal reforms and external support to navigate the economic storm ahead.