When it comes to resolving differences with Turkey, there are only three options: bilateral negotiation, international court arbitration, or military conflict. Each of these paths presents significant risks on both a political and national level. International courts tend to seek compromises rather than ruling in favor of one party. Bilateral negotiations are unlikely to succeed if Turkey challenges Greek sovereignty over islands or insists on demilitarization.
Even pursuing arbitration is challenging, as agreement on key issues like the Aegean Sea “gray zones” and island demilitarization is unlikely. The public debate surrounding Greek-Turkish relations has become toxic, hindering rational discussion. The government’s approach to dialogue has caused concern, with fears of falling into a trap or being pressured to abandon negotiations.
It is crucial for the government to navigate these complex dynamics carefully to avoid political backlash without achieving substantial progress. The current state of affairs calls for a balanced and strategic approach to ensure the best possible outcome for Greece in its dealings with Turkey.