The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) has officially handed over its sixth military base to Somali security forces, a significant step towards its phased withdrawal from the country. The transfer of the Kuday base in the Lower Juba region showcases the progress of Somali forces but also raises concerns about potential power vacuums and proxy conflicts in the region.
ATMIS is gradually reducing its troop presence in Somalia, aiming to complete the withdrawal by the end of 2024. Despite signaling progress in Somalia’s security sector, this retreat also opens the door for increased regional competition and potential proxy wars.
The Horn of Africa is currently a hotbed of geopolitical tensions, with Egypt and Ethiopia at the forefront. Egypt’s military cooperation agreement with Somalia and Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland have raised concerns and could lead to further regional power dynamics and proxy conflicts.
As ATMIS withdraws, the risk of proxy conflicts between regional powers grows, with countries like Egypt and Ethiopia potentially supporting factions in Somalia. The role of the African Union and other regional organizations in mediating these conflicts will be crucial in maintaining stability in the region.
The international community must remain vigilant as ATMIS continues its withdrawal to ensure stability in Somalia and prevent the Horn of Africa from becoming a battleground for proxy wars. Success in navigating these challenges could lead to greater stability and cooperation in the region.
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