Despite recent setbacks for Iran, including Israeli attacks on Hezbollah leaders and failed attempts to attack Israel, US officials still believe that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) spokesperson stated that they assess Iran’s Supreme Leader has not resumed the nuclear weapons program suspended in 2003. This assessment could explain US opposition to an Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program. President Biden announced he would not support such a strike but did not provide a reason, drawing criticism from Republicans.
Experts speculate that with the weakening of key Iranian ally Hezbollah, Iran may restart efforts to acquire a nuclear bomb for protection. Iran is currently enriching uranium to high levels, reducing the breakout time needed to create a nuclear bomb. Israel has not disclosed what their retaliatory targets will be after Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack. The conflicts in the Middle East have become campaign issues in the US, with both Trump and Harris positioning themselves as pro-Israel.
Former Israeli intelligence officer Avi Melamed believes Iran still has options to compensate for setbacks without developing a nuclear warhead.