In the realm of US politics, an “October surprise” is a significant event that could sway the outcome of the upcoming November elections. The recent escalation in the Middle East, particularly the attack on Israel by Iran on October 1, has the potential to become the defining factor in the 2024 elections. The Biden-Harris administration faces a crucial decision regarding whether the US should join Israel in retaliating against Iran and how to proceed.
Israel is poised to retaliate, with or without US involvement. The Biden-Harris strategy of avoiding an all-out war in the Middle East may be upheld by opting for a limited response to the Iranian attack. However, inaction could jeopardize their chances in the upcoming elections, playing into the narrative of former President Donald Trump about a weak US leadership.
Since the assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, US deterrence in the region has waned, emboldening various powers to challenge American interests. The recent Iranian attack on Israel underscores the urgent need for a decisive response from the US to maintain its credibility in the region.
US Reputation at Stake
Failing to address Iran’s aggression could risk tarnishing the US image as a reliable ally and protector of its interests. President Biden and Vice President Harris have a critical opportunity to assert US leadership in the Middle East and bolster their standing ahead of the upcoming elections.
Leadership in this moment is paramount, as indecision could relegate them to a footnote in history. Seizing this moment could not only secure the US position in the region but also pave the path to victory for Harris in the White House.
The writer, a professor and former executive vice president of the Technion – Israel Institute of Technology, is an expert in management science and advises various companies and organizations.