The Impact of the US Presidential Election on the Philippines and Indo-Pacific Region
Just a month before the US presidential election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have nearly exhausted their campaign capacity, even as the results remain uncertain. The election matters for the international community, given the ambiguity over Washington’s long-term influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The Philippines presents a dynamic case within the US-led “hub-and-spokes” network. Over the past eight years, Manila’s approach towards its sole treaty ally has fluctuated from neglect and ambivalence to robust and defining strategic cooperation.
Today, the US alliance is centre stage in the Philippines’ foreign policy. The partnership has become a fulcrum for Manila’s strategic cooperation with others to deter China’s assertive activities in its exclusive economic zone and to enhance its defence and economic resilience.
Given how President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr’s administration has invested significantly in deepening and broadening the alliance, Manila will naturally be apprehensive about the changes the US election may bring.
Concerns over a second Trump presidency, for example, stem from his first stint in the Oval Office. These include Trump’s protectionist economic policies and his unwillingness to allow the US to play a more prominent role as a net security provider without considerable burden-sharing from allies.
Trump also possesses a disdain for institutional economic and defence cooperation. But this only paints half the picture. For instance, when then secretary of state Mike Pompeo visited Manila in March 2019, he said an armed attack on any Philippine force, aircraft or public vessel in the South China Sea would trigger US defence obligations.
In the midst of the US presidential election, the Philippines finds itself at a crucial crossroads as it navigates its strategic alliance with the United States and responds to China’s assertiveness in the region. The outcome of the election could have far-reaching implications for Manila’s foreign policy and security landscape.
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