A year after the Hamas-led incursion into southern Israel, the conflict has spread beyond Gaza, involving other countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Tensions between Iran and its allies and Israel and the US are escalating, with recent missile attacks intensifying the situation. The future remains uncertain, with concerns about catastrophic consequences looming.
The ongoing conflicts have frozen Arab-Israeli normalization efforts, making it unlikely for more Arab countries to join the Abraham Accords anytime soon. The violence has made normalization talks toxic in Arab societies, leading to a shift in perceptions of Israel. Despite US efforts, Saudi Arabia remains hesitant to normalize ties with Israel, citing political risks and public opinion against it.
While Emirati-Israeli normalization seems irreversible, future developments may strain these agreements. The relationships are likely to remain low-profile, with public hostility limiting deeper ties between the countries. The impact of Israeli aggression on these normalized relationships remains to be seen, as the region faces uncertain times.
Giorgio Cafiero is the CEO of Gulf State Analytics
Follow him on Twitter: @GiorgioCafiero