The draft of the 2025 state budget is set to be submitted to Parliament amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The budget assumes a conservative stance regarding soaring energy prices but does not incorporate a highly negative scenario.
Despite recent events, the government remains optimistic about the likelihood of such a scenario unfolding. The 2025 budget is based on an oil price of $80 per barrel and inflation of 2.2%, with current prices hovering around $75 per barrel for Brent.
The government aims for a primary surplus of 2.5% of GDP in the 2025 budget, with a strict spending limit of €3.7 billion. This cautious approach is a response to past challenges, such as the energy crisis triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Ministry sources highlight the improved fiscal performance in the current year, with a higher-than-expected primary surplus of 2.4% of GDP. The government’s careful budgeting reflects a proactive stance in the face of potential economic uncertainties.