Reflecting on One Year in the Middle East – DW – 10/04/2024

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has put its normalization talks with Israel on hold after the October 7 attacks. This development has now become a key factor in the Israel-Hamas peace negotiations. The recent attacks have also sparked a rise in pro-Palestinian solidarity on a social level. However, politically and economically, the Israel-Hamas conflict is seen as a direct threat to Saudi Arabia’s ambitious socioeconomic transformation.

Lebanon

Following the Hamas attacks on Israel, Hezbollah in Lebanon, a designated terrorist group by the EU, began striking Israel’s northern areas. Despite initial criticism, Hezbollah has gained increased support from the Lebanese population since October 7. The Lebanese people are frustrated with Israel’s actions in Gaza and the lack of progress in international diplomacy, viewing Hezbollah as the protector of Palestinian solidarity.

Jordan

Jordan faces a delicate situation in balancing its strong domestic support for the Palestinian cause with its relations with Israel. King Abdullah II and Queen Rania have emphasized the importance of not accepting more Palestinian refugees, as it could jeopardize the Palestinian cause and violate the peace treaty with Israel. With new potential conflicts arising, Jordan is wary of a spillover effect into its territory.

Occupied West Bank

The West Bank, already tense before October 7, has seen an escalation in violence between Israeli settlers and Palestinian civilians. The extreme right-wing Israeli government’s stance on the West Bank has intensified tensions. The ongoing conflict in the West Bank, overshadowed by the Gaza war, poses a constant threat of further violence.

Syria

Despite the long-running civil war, Syria has faded from the media spotlight since October 7. Foreign powers continue to influence the conflict in Syria, with President Bashar Assad gaining acceptance by some Arab and European parties. Assad’s focus remains on quiet diplomacy to secure his hold on power in the long term.

Egypt

Egypt has capitalized on the crisis to enhance its geopolitical significance, particularly in Gaza. President el-Sissi’s cooperation with Israel and role in cease-fire negotiations has boosted Egypt’s perceived importance. This stance has garnered additional support from the US, with full military assistance granted by the Biden administration. Despite concerns over human rights, Egypt’s strategic position has garnered support from Western partners.