Recent military and security cooperation between Cairo and Mogadishu has raised speculations about Somalia becoming a proxy battleground in the escalating tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia. Egypt delivered military equipment to Somalia, prompting warnings from Ethiopia. The geopolitical tensions intensified due to Ethiopia’s memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, leading to concerns of a conflict.
The New Alliance
Following a defense agreement, Egyptian aircraft arrived in Somalia to implement the terms of the deal, marking a shift in alliances. The Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict has now extended to Somalia, with Egypt training Somali military and intelligence exchange. However, Ethiopian hostility towards external forces was evident, with tensions rising over the Nile dam issue.
The Conflict Through a Somali Lens
Somalia’s fragile state complicates its position amid the Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict. Egypt’s support could benefit Somalia, leveraging Cairo’s assistance to enhance its security and political stature in the region. Meanwhile, Ethiopia aims to strengthen relations with entities in Somalia independently. Despite the possibility of armed conflict, regional actors strive to prevent escalation.
Assessing the Situation
While the potential for a direct war in Somalia between Egypt and Ethiopia is considered minimal, both nations are expected to pursue influence through diplomatic and strategic means in the region. Egypt and Ethiopia hold unique advantages as they navigate the complex situation in Somalia, with varying objectives and alliances.
By Abdolgader Mohamed Ali, Eritrean journalist and African Affairs researcher.
Follow him on Twitter: @AbdolgaderAli
[ad_2]
Source link
