Not recognizing Nicolas Maduro’s victory in the July 28 presidential election – and yet not declaring the opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, president-elect: This is the difficult balancing act that most Western countries are facing during Venezuela’s post-election crisis.
On Thursday, September 19, the European Parliament voted in favor of a non-binding resolution proposed by the right and far right that recognizes Gonzalez as the country’s “legitimate and democratically elected president.” So far, no European country has taken that step. Although Spain’s two legislative chambers have also passed a resolution to this effect, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has not followed suit.
Apart from some 40 countries in the Americas, Asia and Africa – led by Russia and China, which, conversely, hailed Maduro as the winner of the election – the majority of countries in the rest of the international community, led by the US, have recognized the “overwhelming evidence” of Gonzalez’s victory at the ballot box. But, apart from Argentina and Panama, no government is using the term “president-elect.” Gonzalez has been in exile in Madrid since September 8.
Statements from the Council of the EU merely say that “official voting records (…) published by the opposition” indicate that ” Gonzalez Urrutia would appear to be the winner of the presidential election by a significant majority.” In early August, Washington made it clear that acknowledging his victory did not mean recognizing him as the president-elect. In fact, on Thursday, the European Parliament rejected a clause that would have required the EU and its member countries to do so.
The difference is subtle, but significant. It would have meant, starting on January 10, the day of the inauguration, forging diplomatic, political and commercial ties with a government in exile. “Hardly anyone in Europe wants to do this, because they don’t want to make the same mistake as with Juan Guaido,” explained a senior Spanish diplomat.
“Enormous pressure”
In January 2019, after Maduro was sworn in for a second term (following another contested re-election), the opposition declared a “power vacuum” and proclaimed the then-head of the National Assembly, Guaido, “interim president.” Barely 10 minutes later, the then-US president, Donald Trump, announced that he recognized the young deputy as the legitimate president. Emmanuel Macron and some 60 other leaders, including those from other European countries, followed suit.
“In 2019, the US government had exerted enormous pressure on the Europeans to recognize Guaido and to bring down Maduro’s regime,” said the Spanish diplomat. “This decision was influenced by the regional context, with Colombia, Brazil and Chile governed by the right. But Guaido’s ‘government,’ despite its ambassadors, its representatives to international bodies, was made of cardboard.”
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