Brandenburg Election Updates
Polls close, exit polls give SPD slim lead over AfD
First exit polls as voting comes to a close give the SPD a lead of 1 percentage point over the AfD. Figures from Infratest Dimap put the center-left Social Democrats on course for 31.0% of the vote, and the far-right AfD at 30.0%. The projections also pointed to a very close race for third place. Both the center-right Christian Democrats and the new left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) were put on 12.0% support. The Greens appear right on the cusp of the 5% hurdle that they must clear to guarantee representation in the state parliament. The socialist Left Party and the pro-business Free Democrats were both set to fall well short of 5% at 3% and 0.8%, respectively.
What to expect when polls close
Voting is nearly concluded and is scheduled to stop at 6 p.m. local time. First projections based on exit polls should follow soon after. While not guaranteed, these tend to be fairly reliable, usually more so than opinion polls before the vote. Given that a close race is anticipated between the AfD and SPD, though, it is more likely than usual that any party’s lead in initial projections could be within the margin of error and potentially subject to change as the count progresses.
Brandenburg election sees high turnout
The state election in Brandenburg has seen particularly high voter turnout, according to the state Interior Ministry. Of the state’s 2.1 million eligible voters, 46% cast a ballot by 2 p.m. local time. Over half of eligible voters (51.3%) in the Brandenburg state capital of Potsdam have cast a ballot so far. It’s a jump from the last election in 2019, which garnered a 31.3% eligible voter participation rate by the same time of day.