Mass migration, rates, and price hikes define this week

Welcome to this week’s edition of our Weekly Risk Watch, offering insights into economic indicators, political shifts, and security updates that could impact your business or daily life, all in one concise package.

Economy and Markets:

• Economic forecasts indicate that Bank Al-Maghrib is expected to lower interest rates during its upcoming meeting, influenced by global trends and hopes for renewed economic stability in Morocco following a series of crises.
• Morocco is expected to experience a significant increase in gold prices due to the ongoing global shortage and record-high international rates. Local goldsmiths predict that prices could soar to over 1000 MAD per gram by the end of the year or early next year.
• The Exchange Office has launched a new audit of investment permits for companies and investors abroad, focusing on Moroccan investments in Africa and Asia, particularly in technology, construction, and real estate, to investigate discrepancies between reported investment amounts and declared profits that may indicate violations of foreign exchange laws and potential money laundering.
• The widespread promotion of high olive oil prices, particularly the prediction of 150 MAD per liter, raises concerns about providing favorable conditions for brokers to manipulate the domestic market.

Political Stability:

• Judicial workers in Inzegan protested on September 20th for fair rights and a motivating basic system, continuing a nationwide effort to improve their social conditions, while urging government intervention to implement agreed reforms to the basic system for registrars alongside the Ministry of Justice.
• The National Coordination of Degree and Diploma Holders in local authorities is staging a nationwide strike and mobilization to protest the Ministry of Interior’s delaying policies, demanding meaningful dialogue and full integration into appropriate ranks as outlined in royal decree No. 1.63.038, while planning a series of strikes and a major rally on October 1 to advocate for their rights.
• The government has postponed the approval of draft law 54.23, which aims to transfer the management of the public sector’s basic compulsory sickness insurance from CNOPS to the National Social Security Fund (CNSS) to streamline oversight, consolidate responsibilities, eliminate student insurance, and transfer CNOPS employees and assets to CNSS.
• The General Directorate of Local Authorities (DGCT)  has issued new instructions requiring local authorities to rigorously manage lease contract validations and submit copies to the tax authorities to combat tax evasion on rental income.

Cross-border stability:

• A Spanish court rejected a Moroccan man’s asylum claim, ruling that poverty does not meet the legal criteria for asylum, as there is no ethnic or religious conflict in Morocco to justify protection under Spanish and European law.
• Between September 11 and 16, police in Fnideq arrested 4,455 individuals attempting to migrate collectively to the Spanish enclaves, including 3,795 adult Moroccans, 141 minor Moroccans, and 519 foreigners. Authorities also reported arresting over 150 individuals for inciting irregular migration online.
• The Royal Gendarmerie in Guelmim has intensified efforts to combat illegal migration, resulting in the detention of over 1,400 individuals including Moroccan citizens and migrants from various nationalities, and the seizure of multiple boats in response to a recent surge in migration attempts along the Ouad Noun coast.

Security:

• Local authorities in the Tata region reported that severe thunderstorms led to flash floods, sweeping away a passenger bus in the Tata Valley on Friday, with preliminary reports indicating that two people have died, 13 have been rescued, and 14 passengers remain missing.
• The Interior Ministry issued on September 21 a warning to Moroccan citizens, urging them to exercise caution, especially near waterways and streams, and avoid crossing areas that may be flooded during periods of high water levels due to anticipated heavy thunderstorms.
• Following a mass-migration attempt from northern Moroccan city Fnideq towards Spanish enclave Ceuta, Morocco mobilized a large number of security units to counter the attempt, leading to numerous viral allegations of police brutality and forced displacement of hopeful migrants. This stirred controversy and could lead to political tensions with authority forces.