The brewing tension between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia over access to the ocean and the Grand Ethiopia Renaissance Dam has sparked geopolitical turmoil in the region. The recent maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which paved the way for sea access for Ethiopia in exchange for recognition of Somaliland, has angered Somalia and led to closer military ties between Somalia and Egypt.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia has emphasized his country’s desire for peace and sovereignty, warning potential aggressors to think twice before invading Ethiopia. Meanwhile, Egypt has accused Ethiopia of threatening its water supply from the Nile with the construction of the GERD.
The region’s complex web of alliances and rivalries, including the involvement of Gulf allies and Djibouti’s offer of a port exclusive to Ethiopia, further complicates the situation. As tensions escalate, the future of the region remains uncertain, with Ethiopia’s once vibrant diplomacy now seen as defensive and reactive. Abiy’s nationalist rhetoric and Somalia’s alignment with Egypt signals a potential shift in the balance of power in the Horn of Africa.
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