Africa’s longtime rivals, Ethiopia and Egypt, are embroiled in a high-stakes conflict, with Somalia caught in the middle. Tensions escalated as Egypt delivered arms to Mogadishu, prompting a strong reaction from Addis Ababa. The rivalry stems from Ethiopia’s miscalculation of its regional strength and Somalia’s emotive response to perceived provocations.
The escalating situation could lead to devastating consequences for the region, threatening recent progress in stabilizing Somalia after years of conflict. Egypt’s involvement in the dispute over the Grand Renaissance Dam further complicates the situation, raising the specter of war.
To prevent a catastrophic conflict, all parties must engage in reasoned dialogue and adherence to international law. Ethiopia may need to reconsider its deals with Somaliland and prioritize negotiations with Mogadishu to defuse tensions. The African Union must act swiftly to prevent a wider regional conflagration that could unravel stability efforts in Sudan and Somalia.