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Exclusive: No easy fix for South China Sea disputes; war ‘cannot be ruled out’

Exclusive: No easy fix for South China Sea disputes; war ‘cannot be ruled out’

The South China Sea dispute continues to escalate as rival claimants ramp up unilateral actions in contested waters. With the US abandoning neutrality, countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia are eager to reinforce their presence. Talks on a code of conduct have slowed as rival claimants now focus on asserting control over disputed areas.

The negotiations, which started in 2013, are facing challenges as the scope of the code, including legal binding, geographical coverage, and involvement of third parties, remains contentious. China sees the code as a crisis management mechanism, while other claimants view it as a dispute settlement process.

The possibility of a war breaking out in the South China Sea remains a concern, especially with the US-China rivalry intensifying. Joint development initiatives and demilitarization efforts could offer potential solutions to ease tensions in the region, but challenges persist due to conflicting territorial claims and external interference.

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Chinese coastguard officers appear to wield bladed weapons during a confrontation with Filipino sailors off Second Thomas Shoal on June 17. Photo: AFP/Armed Forces of the Philippines

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