The recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region took Russia by surprise as they ignored intelligence warnings of the attack. Despite reports detailing the buildup of troops near the border, General Valery Gerasimov chose not to inform President Putin. The result was Ukrainian forces advancing over 10 kilometers into Russian territory. The audacity of this move has caused speculation among analysts, with some suggesting it may prevent outside pressure on Ukraine to make concessions.
While Gerasimov’s position is not immediately threatened, there is growing discontent in the Kremlin over his leadership. Criticism of both him and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu led to a failed mutiny in 2023. Gerasimov has been in command of Russian forces in Ukraine since 2023 and had previously assured Putin of halting the Ukrainian advance on television.
This turn of events has highlighted the internal discord within the Russian military and government, as they are left dealing with the aftermath of underestimated intelligence warnings.
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