The Russian invasion in Ukraine seems to have hit a roadblock, with Ukrainian forces successfully halting Putin’s troops in Kharkiv and Donetsk oblasts. The Russian army is now facing challenges in advancing further. The losses in materiel and manpower on the Russian side are significant, leading to a shortage of resources necessary for the ongoing war. Meanwhile, the influx of contract soldiers is insufficient to offset the losses, hinting at a potential need for a new mobilization by Putin in the coming months.
However, a new mobilization could strain the already fragile Russian economy, which is facing a shortage of workers and technological backwardness due to sanctions. The shortage of workers has led to increased salaries, rising consumer demand, and soaring prices, exacerbating the economic challenges faced by the country. Despite the Russian economy still showing growth, it is largely driven by increased budgetary expenditures to sustain Putin’s war efforts.
As fall approaches, Putin faces a critical decision between prioritizing war or economic stability. The effectiveness of sanctions is evident in the economic hardships faced by Russia, pointing towards the need for further measures to limit Putin’s ability to carry out a mobilization. The consequences of his decisions could have catastrophic outcomes for both Russia and neighboring countries.\
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