The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has adjusted its population outflow forecast, projecting that 700,000 people will leave the country by 2025. This update comes in their recent inflation report for July, citing concerns about the energy sector’s instability due to Russian airstrikes on power infrastructure.
Initially, the NBU estimated 200,000 Ukrainians to emigrate by the end of 2024. However, they have revised this number to 400,000 with an additional 300,000 expected to leave in 2025. The bank anticipates a slow return of migrants only by 2026 if security risks diminish and economic conditions normalize.
The ongoing disruption in Ukraine’s energy system has hampered production, reducing economic activity and driving labor demand downward, stimulating further migration. Despite these challenges, the NBU suggests that the government’s efforts to enhance infrastructure reconstruction and job creation could incentivize returning migrants.
According to statistical data, Ukraine’s population has seen a drastic decline, with the labor pool shrinking by 40%. Amidst these conditions, nearly 6.5 million people have fled Ukraine since the conflict escalated earlier this year.
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