The Future of the US Economy: A Summary

The US economy is expected to experience a cyclic consumer slowdown without facing a recession, leading to a gradual decrease in interest rates, as per a report by Fitch Ratings. Despite the slowing demand and high borrowing costs, American consumers are well-positioned with financial surpluses and low unemployment rates, reducing the likelihood of a sudden collapse in demand.

However, risks persist due to inflation being above central bank targets and potential supply-side shocks. The upcoming US presidential election will be a significant factor in determining the future policy direction. Vice President Kamala Harris, expected to be the Democratic nominee, is unlikely to deviate significantly from President Joe Biden’s agenda. In the event of a re-election of Donald Trump, specific policy areas such as trade protectionism, immigration, fiscal pressures, and foreign policy could see notable changes.

Overall, while uncertainties remain, the US economy is poised to navigate through these challenges with cautious optimism.

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