If China wants to decouple Europe from the US, it must convince Europeans that it can offer better protection against Russia. This is a challenging task, but if China can help reduce Russian hostility towards Europe, the relationship between Europeans and China could thrive.
One way China could do this is by calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war, withdrawing all Russian forces from Ukrainian territory, and halting all trade with Russia until these conditions are met. This move would greatly impact Moscow’s war efforts and its ability to fund the conflict through foreign trade.
European nations would welcome China’s intervention to end Putin’s aggressive actions, potentially reshaping their defense spending and foreign relations. While there is no guarantee that Europe would shift its allegiance from the US to China, this scenario could alter the geopolitical landscape.
Ultimately, the type of great power China aims to be will determine its alliances and global influence. The decision to support or distance itself from Russia will shape China’s role in international affairs.
Mark N. Katz is a professor emeritus at George Mason University, a global fellow at the Wilson Center, and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.