Egypt faces a critical moment as Ethiopia gears up for the final filling of its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) by the end of July. Cairo’s concern over potential water shortages from the Nile, a lifeline for its over 106 million residents, looms large.
The nearly completed multibillion-dollar project is set to add 23 billion cubic meters of water to the dam’s reservoir, expanding it to 64 billion cubic meters – larger than Greater London. Ethiopia’s independent action, without coordination with Egypt and Sudan, threatens to escalate diplomatic tensions.
Risks and Diplomatic Standoff
While Egypt calls for a binding agreement on the dam’s operation and water flow, Ethiopia views it as an infringement of sovereignty crucial for improving the living conditions of its over 123 million citizens, half of whom lack electricity access.
Egypt’s fears center around potential economic devastation, increased food imports, and water scarcity, prompting costly adaptation efforts against climate change threats. Egypt’s vulnerability in the absence of a solid solution raises questions on mitigation options.
Looking Ahead
As the GERD nears completion, Egypt remains cautious, seeking international intervention while keeping negotiation channels open. The role of the upcoming US presidential elections and former President Trump’s involvement in past mediation efforts add complexity to Egypt’s strategy.
Throughout these geopolitical challenges, Cairo aims to safeguard national interests through diverse measures. The road ahead is uncertain, with Egypt navigating a delicate balancing act to protect its future water security.
Amr Emam, a Cairo-based journalist, has contributed to prestigious publications like the New York Times and offers insightful analysis on regional issues.
Follow him on Twitter: @dreamyworld33
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