The Third Plenum: What Experts are Saying About China’s Economic Future

The recent Third Plenum in China has sparked discussion among experts about the country’s economic outlook. The government’s mention of a 2024 economic growth target of around 5% has raised speculation about forthcoming policies to support the economy. Major investment banks and asset managers have shared their insights on the plenum:

Goldman Sachs analysts believe that more demand-side easing measures are needed to achieve the GDP growth target. HSBC Holdings’ Chief Economist Liu Jing expects a shift towards advanced technology development and consumption-led growth. Citigroup’s strategist Pierre Lau sees policy continuity with no major changes in sector recommendations.

JPMorgan Asset Management’s Andrea Yang predicts incremental policy support in the second half of the year, particularly in manufacturing and infrastructure. Meanwhile, DBS analysts emphasize the importance of advancing technology and improving market mechanisms for economic growth.

Overall, experts anticipate further policy support and market movements in the second half of 2024 as China navigates its economic transition.

With additional reporting by Mia Castagnone and Jiaxing Li.

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