Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are considering normalizing relations, which could impact the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES). The potential reconciliation, mediated by Iraq and supported by Russia, faces challenges such as Turkey’s military presence in Syria and the fate of Syrian refugees.
Challenges and Prospects
Despite positive statements from both leaders, distrust persists, as recent clashes near the border between Turkey and Syria show. The SDF, wary of losing territory in a Turkey-Syria deal, relies on US support. An agreement would entail complex refugee resettlement and navigating alliances within Syria’s ongoing conflict.
Coordination and Contingencies
Turkey and Syria may seek collaboration against the SDF, but US troop presence in the region complicates the situation. The SDF’s future hinges on US policy and its ability to negotiate with Assad for a form of local autonomy.
With intricate political dynamics and historical agreements, any potential normalization between Turkey and Syria will require strategic diplomacy and careful consideration of each party’s interests.
Author: Paul Iddon
Follow on Twitter: @pauliddon