As tensions between Israel and Iran rise, the possibility of a direct and protracted war looms. Israel must strategically engage before Iran becomes a nuclear power, as this would limit Israel’s ability to dominate military escalations. And even before possessing nuclear weapons, Iran could utilize radiation dispersal weapons and missiles against Israel. The complex dynamics of the region could also involve North Korea, further adding to the uncertainty.
To navigate the dangers of unintentional nuclear conflict, Israel must transition from deliberate nuclear ambiguity to selective nuclear disclosure. Planning for escalation dominance while avoiding nuclear war is essential, considering the unpredictable nature of the Middle East. The historical context and strategic insights are crucial in devising strategies that prioritize Israel’s survival without escalating to nuclear conflict.
While seeking competitive advantage against Iran is a short-term necessity, the long-term goal must be to prevent nuclear war and keep Iran non-nuclear. The complexities and risks involved demand careful consideration and preparation to safeguard Israel’s future in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
Written by an emeritus professor of international law, this analysis sheds light on the intricate challenges Israel faces in navigating the delicate balance of power in the region.