Far-right National Rally is predicted to win a majority in the French National Assembly based on opinion polls. This shift in power could impact President Macron’s ability to govern. As the country gears up for legislative elections on June 30 and July 7, Macron may have to appoint National Rally leader Jordan Bardella as prime minister if the party secures a majority.
Cohabitation, a scenario where the president and prime minister come from different political camps, could potentially come into play if the National Rally wins. This would lead to divided executive power and potential power struggles between Macron and Bardella. While cooperation may be necessary, Macron could face challenges justifying the rejection of National Rally policies.
If the National Rally falls short of a majority, a political stalemate could occur in Paris. The possibility of early presidential elections or the appointment of a non-partisan government of experts remains unclear. President Macron’s options, including activating extraordinary powers under article 16 of the French constitution, may be limited in the face of a divided government.