In a recent report by Bloomberg Economics, the impact of Russia’s recruitment of former prisoners and convicts to fight in Ukraine has been highlighted. One deserter, Artyom, revealed he fled after witnessing the death of half his squad during his time in Ukraine. The harsh reality of an indefinite service term was not disclosed to him when he joined the army to escape a prison sentence.
With estimates suggesting up to 175,000 former prisoners have been enlisted to fight, concerns have been raised about the potential postwar surge in crime. Bloomberg Economics predicts this could cost Russia up to 0.6% of its GDP, as seen in past conflicts where crime rates fell during wartime but rose sharply afterwards.
To mitigate this risk, the Kremlin has been offering generous payments to attract men to join the army instead of resorting to a large-scale draft. This has resulted in a temporary decline in crime, particularly in regions with high recruitment levels. However, challenges lie ahead as the return of veterans with potential PTSD and previous criminal records could strain law enforcement resources and increase social integration difficulties.
The shortage of police officers across Russia, highlighted by Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev, could exacerbate these challenges. With increasing numbers of convicts returning to civilian life, the need for effective rehabilitation programs and support services will become paramount to prevent a postwar crime wave.\
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