The Central Bank’s economic activity index (IBC-Br), a key indicator of Brazilian GDP, saw a minimal increase of 0.01 percent in April, falling short of market expectations. Despite this, the index has shown a 4.01 percent growth over the past 12 months, with a year-to-date increase of 2.08 percent.
Comprising various production volume proxies, the IBC-Br remains a reliable long-term indicator of economic performance. Analysts remain optimistic about Brazil’s economic outlook, with a median forecast of 2.09 percent for the year.
Despite challenges such as recent floods and monetary conditions, projections suggest a 2.3 percent GDP growth for the year. The first quarter saw a 0.8 percent growth driven by the service sector and increased household spending, returning Brazil to a growth formula based on domestic demand.
Goldman Sachs’s lead economist for Latin America expects continued economic growth in 2024, supported by fiscal stimulus, minimum wage increases, and a positive credit cycle.
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