Tensions are rising in the Indo-Pacific region, fueled by US efforts to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains and concerns that high-end US semiconductor exports to China are being diverted for military use. While Beijing’s rhetoric about “struggle” and “vigilance” seems aimed at internal tensions caused by economic challenges, signs of a potential invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.
Experts point to indicators like a build-up of strategic reserves, civilian defence measures, and propaganda shifts as potential signs of future military action by China. The country’s focus on security over development, along with concerns about food and energy security, add to the complexity of assessing Beijing’s intentions.
Assessing China’s actions is challenging, given its focus on security and ambiguous messaging. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission plays a key role in monitoring these dynamics and providing recommendations to Congress.
As tensions persist, experts advise nuanced approaches to avoid conflict, including enhancing understanding of China’s motives, fostering people-to-people exchanges, and engaging with China on shared challenges like disaster management.
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