China’s economic growth forecast for 2024 has been upgraded to 5% by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), reflecting a strong first quarter and recent economic policies. Despite this positive outlook, the IMF remains cautious about 2025, projecting a growth rate of 4.5%. The country continues to face challenges in its property sector, weak consumer spending, and ongoing deflation.
While China’s economy saw a growth rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, projections indicate a slowdown to 3.3% by 2029 due to an aging population and slower productivity gains. To address the housing market slump and developer defaults, the People’s Bank of China launched a 300 billion yuan financing initiative in mid-May.
The IMF emphasizes the need for comprehensive housing market policies and warns about escalating trade tensions, which could lead to global GDP reductions. Structural reforms focusing on boosting consumption, strengthening social safety nets, and liberalizing the services sector are essential for long-term economic stability and growth.
Despite the positive growth forecast revision, China must overcome challenges in its housing and trade sectors to ensure sustained economic growth.\
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