The recent UK local elections saw the Labour Party losing a significant portion of its vote share in areas with a high Muslim population, a decrease likely influenced by the party’s stance on Israel’s war in Gaza. According to a report from Number Cruncher Politics, Labour lost 33 percentage points in predominantly Muslim areas on May 2nd. This decline in support was primarily due to the party’s delayed call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
In regions where the Muslim population exceeded 70 percent, Labour saw a decrease of 39 percentage points in their vote share. Independent candidates, campaigning specifically on the Gaza conflict, posed strong competition in these areas, impacting the overall outcome of the elections.
In the West Midlands mayoral contest, Labour’s victory margin over the Conservatives was narrow, partly due to an independent candidate who highlighted Israel’s war as a central campaign issue. This trend of independent candidates focusing on Gaza is expected to continue in the upcoming general election.
Despite the dip in Muslim support, pollsters believe it may not significantly impact the general election outcome, as these regions traditionally lean towards Labour. A recent YouGov survey also showed a majority of British people supporting a ceasefire in Gaza and a ban on weapons sales to Israel.